Dear Friends,
In just 12 days, Bucks County voters will choose whether 40 years of county government run by Republicans will continue?
I’ll share several comments from Michael Smerconish, the former Central Bucks resident who has a daily radio program and a weekly CNN TV show. And, I’ve come to the conclusion that the only Democrat who could beat Donald Trump in landslide proportions is Michelle Obama.
But first, the Bucks election on Nov. 5. There are four common pleas judges running for retention. You’ll vote yes or no to retain Judges Robert Baldi, Wallace Bateman, Gary Gilman and Alan Rubenstein. (I’ll vote yes to retain all four).
You’ll be able to choose candidates for three open seats on the Court of Common Pleas. Besides the county commissioner race, voters will choose the county register of wills, county treasurer, county clerk of courts and county coroner.
Fifty-three years ago, when I became a county commissioner, the Republican Party was the dominant party. It held more than a 40,000 voter registration edge over the Democrats. In those days, the only way the Democrats had a chance was if a Republican commissioner were involved in a scandal.
Today, times are quite different. The Democrats lead the GOP by only 11,000 in party registration. Will that spell curtains for the Republican commissioner candidates? On Nov. 5, each voter can choose two commissioner candidates. The top three candidates with the most votes become the board of commissioners starting in January, 2020.
That process guarantees a majority-minority government (two from the majority party and one from the minority).
In the 20th century, the Democratic Party controlled the county government twice … once, in 1955 for four years and once, in 1971 for four years; a total of just eight years. In addition, the GOP has run Bucks County’s government throughout 2019.
Can the Republicans continue to govern? Four years ago, Republican Commissioners Rob Loughery and Charley Martin held on to the majority … but just barely. Although Loughery won handily, Martin just squeaked by … but by a narrow margin.
Do the Democrats smell blood in the water? The Dems are running Commissioner incumbent Diane Ellis-Marseglia and Falls Township Supervisor Bob Harvie. Ellis-Marseglia should have no trouble continuing in office. Neither should Loughery. Both Ellis-Marseglia and Loughery have excellent reputations.
The question in my mind is whether Harvie can beat Gene Di Girolamo, a well-known Republican from Bensalem Township and state representative from the 18th District. Di Girolamo is Loughery’s running mate. Will Di Girolamo or Harvie have better name recognition?
In my view, the political party that has the best machinery to get out the vote on Nov. 5 will win the board of commissioners’ race.
The Democrats could win this one and if they do, they’ll control Bucks County for four years … just as Montgomery County has done.
Turning to Michael Smerconish, he recently ran a non-scientific poll on his one-hour Saturday morning CNN television show. He asked viewers whether President Donald Trump could win reelection without the support of the conservative media? (By conservative media, I presume that Smerconish was referring to the likes of Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity.)
Only 10 percent of the viewers said that Trump could win reelection without conservative media support. Ninety percent said No.
The other Smerconish observation of note was his views about Joe Biden’s son, Hunter. Smerconish believes that although Hunter Biden is not guilty of wrong doing, the implications of a conflict of interest will be a hangover for his father.
Every time a Trump supporter brings up Hunter Biden’s name, his father will have to defend him … so those accusations will continue to haunt Joe Biden.
Meanwhile, I think that there are only two people who could easily beat Donald Trump … if he continues to run for reelection (which I doubt, for reasons that you’ll see next). The first is former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg and the other is Michelle Obama.
I’d vote for either of them in a heartbeat. Alas, Bloomberg says that he’s not in the running … and Michelle Obama may be battle weary. We’ll see.
My prediction is that Donald Trump will resign before the 2020 primary season. Here’s why. Earlier this month, a judge in the Southern Federal District of New York ordered Trump to turn over eight years of his tax returns. Trump desperately needs to keep those tax returns hidden from the public. In those tax returns, there’s too much incriminating evidence, which will prove that Trump is not the “knight in shining armor” that he claims to be.
Will an appellate court, or the U.S. Supreme Court hear Trump’s appeal? If the Trump team chooses to appeal to the Supreme Court and the Supreme Court opts not to hear the case, it’s over. Trump will have to show his tax returns to the Congress.
Therefore, I bet that Trump is readying a plea deal like this: “I (Trump) will resign if you (the Congressional Democrats) drop the charges against me.” That’s about what happened with the President Nixon impeachment case in 1974.
Or, as the French say, “Plus ca change, plus c’est la meme chose.” The more things change, the more they are the same,
Then again, as Mighty Betsy often opines, “Charlie Meredith is often wrong … but never in doubt!”
Sincerely, Charles Meredith
